There was a good news story for physical music this week – a new Taylor Swift album set for release on October.
In the latest edition of Music Week, we speak to industry figures about the surprise 2.8% year-on-year fall in vinyl sales in Q2. Growth was maintained for the first six months – 6% – but that was down on the 12.4% increase in the first half of 2024.
The lack of a Taylor Swift album so far in 2025 was partly to blame due to comparisons with the prior year Q2, when the huge-selling Tortured Poets Department was released along with other key albums by Billie Eilish, Dua Lipa and Charli XCX.
Based on Music Week calculations, Q2 vinyl sales would have been up by 2.5% if the one-off effect of The Tortured Poets Department is taken into account. However, that is still a slowdown in growth compared to quarterly increases in recent years.
Furthermore, quarterly vinyl sales did not suffer dips when compared with prior year results that included Swift releases such as Midnights in Q4 2022 and 1989 (Taylor’s Version) in Q4 2023. TTPD opened with 66,388 vinyl sales in Q2 last year, just over 4,000 (7.2%) more than Midnights’ weekly sale of 61,948.
Another factor is that concers have been raised about the impact of the rising price of vinyl, although increases have levelled off as overall inflation has come down.
Speaking to Music Week, Kim Bayley, CEO of digital and entertainment retail association ERA, described The Tortured Poets Department as a “one-off” although she stresses that at this point the vinyl market is not relying on big new releases (even if a newly announced Q4 Swift title will be very welcome). Here, Bayley shares her outlook for the format following those half-year figures…
How do you assess the vinyl performance in the first six months?
“To increase vinyl volume by 6% and value by 11.9% in the six months from January to the end of June is little short of a miracle given the current economic environment and coming after 17 straight years of growth. To put it in context, half-year vinyl sales of £91.7m were more than we sold in an entire 12-month period as recently as 2018 and Record Store Day sales hit an all-time-high. At some point that growth will settle down, but we see no signs of it yet.”
At some point that growth will settle down, but we see no signs of it yet
Kim Bayley
CD sales suffered a slump so is there a wider concern about physical music sales?
“It’s pretty clear that physical is as much a part of music’s future as is streaming, and within that, vinyl has clearly got the edge with revenues twice those of CD. And yet I wouldn’t bet against CD just yet. Its greatest issues are availability in terms of shelf space and pressings, but for those keen on having a physical artifact it does have advantages in terms of price, robustness and quality.”
How much is the rising price of vinyl a concern, particularly if it is then out of the reach of the younger audience who may have been drawn to the format?
“Retailers have a unique awareness of the price sensitivity of music fans. After all, they have to look their customers in the eye at the till and there are concerns that labels are running the risk of being over-ambitious when it comes to pricing. As an industry we need to keep focused on those volume and value sales figures – and listen to our customers.”
The rebranded WH Smith – now TG Jones, under new ownership – is reportedly planning to expand on the vinyl offering following its return to those stores last year. What are the opportunities to drive further sales on the High Street?
“The decision of TG Jones to embrace vinyl has got to be good news since it further drives the format into the mainstream. Despite the growth of the past years and the incredible rebound of HMV and the independents, there are still too many towns where vinyl is simply not available.”
We love big new releases – they drive interest and footfall – but individually they rarely move the dial
Kim Bayley
How reliant is the market on these big releases, such as Taylor Swift last year and other stars?
“The whole Taylor Swift phenomenon last year really was a one-off – although happily her live album this year has also performed well – but we have still seen very strong market growth. We’re thrilled for Sam Fender – a big supporter of Record Store Day – that People Watching is the biggest-selling vinyl album of the year so far this year, but to put it into context it represented only 0.016% of the vinyl market over those first six months. In other words, we love big new releases – they drive interest and footfall – but individually they rarely move the dial.”
What are your hopes for the impact of the Mercury Prize and National Album Day in the same week for vinyl and physical music?
“Consolidating the Mercury Prize and National Album Day in the same week makes perfect sense. They are complementary in terms of audience and intent and we’re hopeful this will prove a real focus point for both streaming and physical sales.”
PHOTO: Rough Trade
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